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  11-Dec-2017 22:21 EDT  

A Bunch of Fives

So when all is said and done, we count up the kicks, handballs, disposals, marks, frees, deliberates, tackles and  fouls and translate them  into goals and behinds. Then someone, somehow has to work out why it was so obviously going to be so and what will happen in the future!! That’s the unenviable task of our resident expert Professor Statto, Nobel Prize Winner in waiting, who’s been explaining the meaning of footy life and giving comfort to his followers for years.

He’ll tell you why your predictions were bound to be wrong. He’ll tell you about the most outrageous possibilities to come. He’ll tell you, he'll tell you and he'll tell you…But whatever he says, remember:

“98% of all statistics are made up.” ~Author Unknown

Professor Statto and his amazing statistics.

======================================

Visit the Prof's 2011 season archives.

Visit the Prof's 2010 season archives.

Visit the Prof's 2009 season archives.

Previous analysis

2012 Round 21.... 2012 Round 20.... 2012 Round 19.... 2012 Round 18.... 2012 Round 17.... 2012 Round 16

Greetings folks,

Top eight locked in", "Blues blew a fuse" or "Pies going stale", these were just some of the headlines that could have been used this week. However on a positive note SUNSHINE ON THE COAST is certainly appropriate with both Gold Coast and Brisbane winning in the same round giving the Sunshine state something to cheer about as the season comes to a close.

Three wins for the SUNS this season, the same as last year in their debut year tells us they have not improved on the win loss ratio, but physically and in their development individually they have, so look out next year for better results.

The signs of a SUNS upset victory were there last week with Gold Coast producing one of their best performances for the season at the MCG, against premiership favorites Hawthorn losing only by 64 points. This is the problem with so many games to keep up to date with and unless you saw that performance you could be excused for thinking Hawthorn may have taken the foot off the pedal so to speak as they prepared for their Swans clash the following week.

With 20 on the injury list, the dropping of Jarred Brennan to the reserves, a 119 point thrashing Carlton gave the SUNS last year, as well as their 96 point win against a lackluster Essendon last week the Blues had every right to presume they would win the match, gain percentage and stay in finals contention.

It did not happen as Gold Coast jumped out of the blocks to register a 6 goal opening term, increase the lead to 40 points in the second term before Carlton snapped out of complacency and got their game back on track, but were unable to reduce the margin losing the match and will now not play finals.

Stats can be misleading and when you look at the Stattometer table for the round you would wonder how Carlton lost as the stats indicate they should have won.

One stat that cannot be measured however is DEALING WITH PRESSURE, especially when teams are expected to win but when the pressure mounts the ability to hold your nerve, deal with what confronts you and execute your expected performance to get the required result is what it is all about.

Choosing the right option, correct disposal and set shots for goal, these are the challenges that confront teams and individuals and this is what Gold Coast were able to do, but Carlton were not. In the coming weeks we will find out who can deal with the pressure and who cannot.

STAT OF THE WEEK

With out bragging don’t you love it when you see something, predict it and it eventuates? Last week I told you to follow the scoring trend of both Hawthorn vs Sydney. Hawthorn had won a staggering 19 second terms but only 10 third terms, Compared to Sydney who had won 16 third terms but seem to struggle a little in the fourth. (10)

On that basis Hawthorn had to keep Sydney in check especially in the third quarter often referred as the Premiership Quarter where games are often won or lost. If they were to do that they would beat Sydney and replace the Swans who had held top spot since round 14 and be the new ladder leaders.

BANG well it all come true, Hawthorn won their 20th second term for the year kicking 7.5 to Sydney 4.2 to be only 5 points down at halftime.

They then held Sydney, in actual fact outscoring them 3.5 to 2.2 in the third term.

And In the last frantic term which had 6 lead changes, Hawthorn held on for a 7 point victory and took over the ladder leadership from Sydney. How good would it be if I could predict that every week?

We have now had 4 ladder leaders at different times this season. West Coast 11 weeks, Collingwood (3), Sydney (7) and Hawthorn (1) and going into the last round of the year it is still possible for 3 teams Hawthorn, Sydney or Adelaide to be finish on top. What a season we have had and with just one more round remaining not only is the ladder positions still up for grabs but also your tipping, best of luck.

 
Now here's the key to the "Stattometer and Season Analyser Table" that follows:
Rds = Rounds   H/O = Hit Outs   T =Tackles CP =Contested Possession   CL = Clearances
K = Kicks   H =Handballs   M = Marks      
C/M =Contested Marks: note these are part of overall marks, not additional
M 50 =Marks inside forward 50: note these are part of overall marks, not additional
F 50 = Forward Entries   D 50 = Backline entries
Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 = First, Second, Third, Fourth Quarter score
Total = Total for season
 
STATTOMETER TABLE ROUND 22
 
Pre ladder positions Team HO T CP CM K HH M CM M50   F50 D50   Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Team Score

12

Richmond 21 43 146 26 229 183 122 16 23   71 40   5.5 3.6 4.5 1.8 13.24.102

10

Essendon 30 50 136 28 180 140 61 12 7   40 71   3.2 1.4 3.3 1.0 8.9.57
                                       

11

St Kilda 30 62 134 36 247 147 125 16 24   68 32   7.2 10.7 2.1 6.6 25.13.163

18

GWS Giants 39 55 126 39 176 158 75 10 5   32 68   2.1 0.2 1.2 2.0 5.5.35
                                       

13

Brisbane Lions 43 66 157 40 188 122 58 6 9   48 49   5.3 5.3 2.1 4.1 16.8.104

14

Port Adelaide 50 61 156 54 196 119 56 5 9   49 48   5.2 3.1 6.5 0.1 14.9.93
                                       

2

Hawthorn 50 56 159 48 198 137 67 6 6   58 57   0.1 7.5 3.5 5.1 15.12.102

1

Sydney Swans 53 81 170 46 202 171 60 13 13   57 58   4.3 4.2 2.2 4.4 14.11.95
                                       

5

West Coast Eagles 59 42 142 47 202 160 77 10 16   53 33   2.4 4.4 5.4 4.5 15.17.107

4

Collingwood 12 57 109 23 202 126 101 11 8   33 53   4.4 0.5 2.0 2.1 8.10.58
                                       

17

Gold Coast Suns 29 44 122 37 191 100 90 16 13   43 66   6.1 5.2 1.4 3.1 15.8.98

9

Carlton 50 57 145 45 211 154 81 10 18   66 43   2.3 2.4 5.6 2.7 11.20.86
                                       

7

Geelong Cats 33 69 124 23 222 161 132 13 18   57 44   3.2 5.2 2.4 6.3 16.11.107

15

Western Bulldogs 40 52 150 42 195 230 89 18 6   44 57   1.0 2.3 4.2 4.2 11.7.73
                                       

8

Fremantle 62 61 164 42 246 139 108 9 15   60 42   3.5 3.2 5.3 9.2 20.12.132

6

North Melbourne 15 75 127 34 174 154 73 7 6   42 60   1.2 4.2 3.3 4.0 12.7.79
                                       

3

Adelaide 42 55 147 42 218 108 95 18 15   51 51   5.3 5.5 10.4 2.6 22.18.150

16

Melbourne 25 53 128 29 188 168 85 11 12   51 51   3.4 2.3 3.3 3.5 11.15.81
Pre game ladder position TEAM HO T CP CL K H M CM M50   F50 D 50   Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Team Score
 
SEASON ANALIZER
 
Season ladder position Team HO TT CP CL K H M CM 0M50   F50 D 50   Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Season teamTotal score Season Opposition total score

1

Hawthorn 846 1411 3016 858 4624 3334 1969 194 288   1248 972   78.77 104.107 92.78 104.80 377.322 241.217

2

Sydney Swans 900 1510 3186 849 4305 3456 1573 229 238   1188 1161   84.54 77.64 86.62 83.73 327.250 217.215

3

Adelaide 937 1257 3172 874 4586 2777 1875 271 283   1110 1165   96.66 75.50 85.64 79.75 335.265 256.235

4

West Coast Eagles 1062 1253 2996 814 4426 3195 2015 309 250   1136 1092   76.68 74.76 78.62 91.59 321.260 250.212

5

Collingwood 745 1359 3076 801 4577 3223 1891 257 245   1101 1068   80.77 68.78 71.63 75.55 291.273 250.270

6

Geelong Cats 785 1462 2988 749 4396 3108 1974 271 302   1156 998   72.72 73.65 70.73 90.67 337.267 263.231

7

Fremantle 957 1515 3154 771 4548 3142 2017 274 223   1043 927   61.51 54.69 86.59 73.44 274.211 232.212

8

North Melbourne 1011 1322 3019 812 4401 3572 1881 248 273   1220 1055   84.64 87.60 82.65 84.57 339.220 294.266

9

St Kilda 710 1417 2883 789 4532 3003 2000 251 277   1133 999   83.51 81.62 86.90 80.63 328.267 252.228

10

Carlton 889 1454 3000 828 4428 3079 1889 217 280   1111 990   73.51 65.62 67.78 81.67 287.266 262.249

11

Essendon 918 1303 3035 766 4482 2971 1921 253 247   1175 1060   74.73 73.72 70.71 72.69 293.285 283.240

12

Richmond 828 1315 3076 798 4485 3540 1930 250 246   1190 942   84.79 56.74 81.91 78.74 299.308 268.241

13

Brisbane Lions 719 1345 2956 774 4194 3148 1790 193 207   985 1158   70.50 57.70 56.45 77.50 260.216 288.247

14

Port Adelaide 737 1256 2881 795 4020 3163 1705 213 180   963 1006   61.52 44.58 74.51 48.62 227.223 287.235

15

Western Bulldogs 921 1312 3055 817 4326 3524 1860 262 186   1042 1253   46.55 62.49 58.61 43.61 219.167 323.241

16

Melbourne 869 1404 2846 716 4050 2894 1768 291 207   964 1018   55.59 53.47 51.52 60.67 219.226 316.286

17

Gold Coast Suns 636 1142 2783 720 3926 3267 1708 211 205   892 1071   45.60 68.59 45.46 48.46 216.211 335.318

18

GWS Giants 756 1234 2791 732 4008 3167 1719 231 154   786 1095   43.44 39.41 37.46 52.35 171.167 254.227
Season ladder position  Team HO T CP CL K H M CM M50   F50 D50   Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Season Team total score Season Opposition total score

 

 

SEASON QUARTER WIN LOSS CHART

 
LADDER          TEAMS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 TOTAL
             

1

Hawthorn 12 20 11 14 57

2

Sydney Swans 15 14 16 10 55

3

Adelaide 14 11 15 12 52

4

West Coast Eagles 11 15 12 15 53

5

Collingwood 15 12 10 9 46

6

Geelong Cats 12 12 9 15 48

7

Fremantle 9 10 15 14 48

8

North Melbourne 14 14 12 10 50

9

St Kilda 14 10 15 12 51

10

Carlton 8 8 11 12 39

11

Essendon 8 11 8 10 37

12

Richmond 14 5 15 10 44

13

Brisbane Lions 11 8 9 11 39

14

Port Adelaide 6 6 14 5 31

15

Western Bulldogs 6 8 6 5 25

16

Melbourne 8 8 4 4 24

17

Gold Coast Suns 5 12 3 6 26

18

GWS Giants 3 2 1 6 12
 

 

Round 22 - Score Five Tippers, the bookies and Bankers lives 

      

Of the players selecting game as banker

Home team

Odds

Vs

Away team

Odds

% Players Bankers

Home Banker %

Away Banker %

Draw %

 Richmond

  1.66 

v

 Essendon

  2.40

 18.43%

  59.63% 

 39.34% 

  1.04% 

 St Kilda

 1.02

v

 GWS

  36.0 

   50.72% 

 98.96%

0.62% 

  0.41% 

 Port Adelaide

  2.34 

v

Brisbane 

 1.75

 0.41%

 28.78%

70.60% 

  0.62% 

Sydney 

  2.09 

v

 Hawthorn

  1.84 

 2.07%

 63.98%

 34.78%

 1.24%

WC Egls  

 1.82

v

 Collingwood

  2.16 

 0.83%

  62.32% 

 36.85%

 0.83%

 Gold Coast

 20.0

v

 Carlton

 1.04

 11.80%

2.07% 

 97.52%

 0.41%

Geelong 

 1.03

v

W'n B'dogs  

  25.70 

 11.39%

 98.76%

1.04% 

 0.21% 

 North Melbourne

  1.47 

v

 Fremantle

  3.01 

 0.00%

 89.23%

 10.14%

 0.62% 

Melbourne

7.84

v

Adelaide

1.13

4.35%

3.73%

96.07%

0.21%

 The big banker losers were those going for the Gold Coast who defied the odds to knock out the Blues. And the other big losers were the Bombers takers!

Period

Points range and % of games falling into range

 

0 - 10

%

 

11 - 30

%

 

31 - 50

%

 

51+

%

 

2000 -2009 Average

742

20

 

1,140

31

 

942

25

 

886

24

 

2009 Season

34

19.3

 

56

31.8

 

47

26.7

 

39

22.2

 

2010 Season

33

19.6

 

50

29.8

 

42

25

 

43

25.6

 

2011 Season

35

18.72

 

55

29.41

 

36

19.25

 

61

32.62

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2012 Round 1

3

33.33

 

1

11.11

 

3

33.33

 

2

22.22

 

Round 2

1

11.11

 

4

44.44

 

0

0

 

4

44.44

 

Round 3

0

0

 

4

44.44

 

0

0

 

5

55.55

 

Round 4

2

22.22

 

4

44.44

 

2

22.22

 

1

11.11

 

Round 5

3

33.33

 

2

22.22

 

4

44.44

 

0

0

 

Round 6

2

22.22

 

2

22.22

 

3

33.33

 

2

22.22

 

Round 7

0

0

 

4

44.44

 

2

22.22

 

3

33.33

 

Round 8

1

11.11

 

3

33.33

 

1

11.11

 

4

44.44

 

Round 9

0

0

 

4

44.44

 

2

22.22

 

3

33.33

 

Round 10

3

33.33

 

1

11.11

 

0

0

 

5

55.55

 

Round 11

2

22.22

 

1

11.11

 

2

22.22

 

1

11.11

 

Round 12

3

33.33

 

1

11.11

 

1

11.11

 

1

11.11

 

Round 13

2

22.22

 

1

11.11

 

1

11.11

 

2

22.22

 

Round 14

0

0

 

2

22.22

 

3

33.33

 

4

44.44

 

Round 15

1

11.11

 

4

44.44

 

1

11.11

 

3

33.33

 

Round 16

1

11.11

 

1

11.11

 

3

33.33

 

4

44.44

 

Round 17

1

11.11

 

4

44.44

 

2

22.22

 

2

22.22

 

Round 18

1

11.11

 

2

22.22

 

0

0

 

6

66.66

 

Round 19

3

33.33

 

1

11.11

 

3

33.33

 

1

11.11

 

Round 20

2

22.22

 

4

44.44

 

1

11.11

 

2

22.22

 

Round 21

1

11.11

 

3

33.33

 

2

22.22

 

3

33.33

 

Round 22

1

11.11

 

22.22

 

3

33.33

 

3

33.33

 

Moving Average

 

17.46

 

 

29.10

 

 

20.63

 

 

32.80

The Score Five Footy "8 Correct Results Tipped Club" 

Congratulations to... 

Starkerz ashcook judygrieves rusty

who become our newest inductees having  tipped eight basic results correctly in Round 22.

 

Our brightest and best - Round 22

Congratulations to the best of our tippers and to rusty topping the Round 22 charts, cut off 33 points or better, namely:

Player

League

Supports

Points

rusty

Port Adeliade

Nige's Niceones

37

sexkev58

Richmond

Tori's Tassie Devils

36

russdj

Brisbane

Slicer's Slicers

34

Statto

Collingwood

Slicer's Slicers

34

chicagoray

Hawthorn

AFANA 2011

34

waynepapps

Fremantle

Bernie's Bouncers

34

brewbabes

Fremantle

Daics' Diehards

34

barbiedoll

WC Egls

Christian's Commentators

34

crocdanno

St.Kilda

Nick's Knights

33

Starkerz

WC Egls

Nick's Knights

33

 

Round 23 odds and a little banker help

Home team

Odds

Vs

Away team

Odds

Adelaide

1.03

v

Gold Coast

26.0

Fremantle

1.06

v

Melbourne

16.0

GWS

30.45

v

N.Melbourne

1.05

Carlton

2.30

v

St Kilda

1.71

Essendon

5.47

v

 Collingwood

1.20

Brisbane

1.23

v

Western Bulldogs

5.25

Geelong

1.73

v

Sydney

2.30

Richmond

1.14

v

Port Adelaide

8.25

Hawthorn

1.29

v

West Coast

4.20

It feels like last chance saloon time and with little to gain on the ladder front who knows what teams will be fielded? Notwithstanding I'm going to takeNorth to trounce GWS and the Crows to do likewise to the Gold Coast - Somethings never change eh?

Till next week have fun and good luck folks!

Statto

 

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